Humble and the stock market

This is a point of view : and no disrespect to anyone or any thought process :

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The word most used reverently by many if not most when talking of the stock markets on many an occcasion is " humble " .This word is used as if it is a sacred word or a mantra and has some tantrik powers . Utterance of this word to me is synonimous with some thing of the sort of a guru's chelas in many ashrams in our state and neighbouring states of Uttaranchal (INDIA) who chant some words and mantras which are notmeaningful to the general public but are done with such poise and looks as though they have walked the path and been through the process of whatever there is to do and wisdom has dawned and now they are sort of an inner circle with some wisdom or some supernatural experience not known to the general public. ( dont misunderstand me here , when i first heard this word uttered on Cnbc i was amused ,then i saw it uttered again and again by many of the participants in the various media in interviews and conversations regarding stock markets but as of yet i still have not understood why this is so and what exactly is so important that makes this word so important in context to the stock market ) I made a search on the web and on many websites " that markets humble u is a phrase used in some places but the books i have read , the software i have used and other stuff connected with trading .I still fail to have a clue about the exact relevance of why this word is used and in exactly what context .I have not found this word in any Tech Analysis software developer site neither in any site or author peddling his trading systems or books ??
I mean some phrases used are " IN my humble opinion " IMHO " " Markets humble you " " i humbly speak " I am surprised at the usage of this word on so many occasions on many of the stock groups ,google and yahoo etc etc ,is it because we have gone through so many scams and the unscrupulous nature of some market participants or the most unpredictable nature and volatility of the markets which have driven many of the market players to this attitude of using this word ?? The english meaning of humble (adjective forms: more humble; most humble; less humble; least humble)modest; meek Example of humbleShe was humble when complimented on her achievements. http://www.english-test.net/asvab/vocabulary/meanings/005/asvab-words.php#humble
The stock marekt is a place where u have to take a lot of effort to make a significant profit .Such an activity requires first some characteristics in a person .First is intelligence , then the ability to analyse , and analytical thinking , the ability to make quick desicions and finally the quality of taking calculated risks and timing.These in my opinion are the main characteristics . How does anyone develop these characteristics : Its not done overnight but over the years ,subconsiously .First is Thought which when continued for sometime becomes an act and which continued habit which continued becomes character and which continued shapes destiny Now looking at the word humble here in this context any person using this word would not have the characteristics for a trader .Since first the most important requirement of any person trading the markets is to have conviction in what he is doing . When i say i humbley believe the marekt is at a top and we should sell or there is an exclipse and we shold sell then i am questioning the rationalism of my belief and convictions .I am asking the second party what he thinks and making my decision taking his thoughts in account becasue i am not sure of my own convictions.Even if u are wrong about the ragtionale of any trading action the moment u talk of humbly believe and it becomes a habit u are also making a habit of questioning your own convictions and doubting your actions .Which blunts desicion making and fast action. When u have convictions u have belief in your actions which ensure that u will take prompt action when the occasions arise.and there are basically only two actions buy , sell and hold which is basically inaction of maintaining status quo .Thats all .To perform these two actions one should be sure and so to be sure u should have a firm conviction in what u are doing. When i say " I humbly speak " it means an attitude of meekness or not sureness .Whats wrong in being direct and saying I think u are wrong or i think u should buy or u should sell or your count is wrong .Your trading signals are wrong . If one is not sure of ones convictions then it makes no sense to be in this field .
Since what u think is what u speak and what u speak over and over again in time makes up an attitude the word "HUMBLE " would surely handicap any potential traders bank balance. MARKETS HUMBLE YOU yes i know that so do most ,fine , know it and so now get past it ,it is just a fact or a saying of someone maybe or someones experience ,its a phrase used .what does it mean ?? That u can make a mistake in the market and loose a pile of money .That u can come on the road .you are here to take a risk and get rewards for taking the risk .So markets humble u or does the experience of trading the markets humble you.
Psychology is something that is totally relevant in trading , using the world humble on so many occasions could change the habits and character of the trader . It could make one more prone to question each and every decision taken before trading . The convictions would be questioned and the mental psyche of the trader changed . I think the word humble is a good word and one should be humble but to use it with such relevance and give it so much importance that it starts questioning every second desicion of a trader makes it something to avoid .
In my opinion , The marekt is for people who are direct .Take time for making a desicion and take swift actions where due and if u find that u are wrong then take some more swift actions.The humble bit makes one very circumspect about ones convictions,and would psyche one to question ten people about ones decisions . Whats wrong with being direct ??

--- Natasha !!!

for some more on trading psychologywww.thetradingdoctor.com

Trading methods

Some thoughts on how to increase trading profits: How does one trade ?? some using charting tools and software for the same ,These are basically the minority group of traders , the majority trade using information,tips , viz depending on secondary people tools or views etc etc,and thats why the person using his own decision making apparatus has an advantage . Those who trade using their own analysis are really committed so what are the methods and systems used and how efficient are they and how sound are the foundations : The fundamental analysis i will leave aside.
One of the most efficient systems available are the patterns : However these have a lot of hard work in the sense that for a pattern to be perfect has to satisfy a number of criteria and some criteria are minute and easily forgotten .Also most patterns have a confirmation before they can be traded ,the frequency of patterns is not much .but once a pattern is established properly the rewards can be huge. So is a trendline a pattern or something else ?? So better to trade using the most recurring and easily identifiable and profitable patterns ,trendline ?? , triangles , pennants etc etc and not bother about the entire gamut of patterns . You draw a pattern and u also draw a trendline . The gann and elliot waves and astrology i will leave aside There are many issues of relating to foundations , validity of these theories , substance and prediction which are highly debateable. and come to mathematical models which are the most frequently used ?? Why are mathematical models used so frequently ??? mathematics is an exact science , it is vast ,and has many aspects to it , and is robust ,one knows that one plus one cannot be three , There is a solution to almost anything using numbers one can draw any shape ,size and also predict the probable outcome of an event which is where i am interested because in the stock market what is going to happen in the future is what is of basic interest to make sound decisions . Another advantage is one can have more than one formulae or method to do a certain task and efficiency of all these tasks is very simple to calculate using past data and doing a walk forward .One can also do an optimisation which is not available in any other method which makes it even more robust .The main criteria of risk and rewards are easily adjusted according to ones condition so something called a calculated risk can easily be taken. The key to have better trading results using mathematical models is to have better indicators which are robust developed by using combinations of various mathematical and also statistical models . This not being an investment model but a trading model ,since here fundamentals dont really play that big a role in decision makeing .however in investing fundamentals also have a major share of consideration cause unless there is growth there cannot be price appreciation.

Effective Trading

Few tips compliled to make a trader who is just beginning to trade to become profitable . ( compiled from books mags i followed most and i am very profitable due to them )
In order of importance :
a) Keep trading costs small ~ Stock trading is a zero sum game and in fact a negative sum game where the goverment and broker take a cut of the pie so keep that piece of pie as small as possible MEANS Keep things simple dont overtrade , trade with the trend mostly and make it a point to keep the risk reward ratio as small as possible .
b) Start with paper trading stocks .once u do that u will know whether you are really good ie where u stand exactly .Dont worry about theis bull run .or worry about missing out on the run ,there are plenty of opportunities and plenty of shares .Just find out where u stand first as far as trading talent and acumen is concerned .Dont loose all your money to become an expert by committing yourself while training so paper trade , to trade u need money to do so to do the actual thing .Loosing allof it while learning would leave you with no option but to paper trade when u are reasonabley trained. Start trading with stock and not the options and futures .Leave them well alone.
c) Time frames : the shorter the time frames the harder it is to make money .Not this extremely important sentence .Start with buy and hold approach in the beginning and use if u wish a weekly candle to triger signals.and prevent u from overtrading .
d ) Diversify : Note here , in any trending market if u are putting all your eggs in one basket and the basket is good then u can do so but not in a ranging market . Suppose u can buy only 100 shares of one company so u can afford to buy 10 comapnies .If u buy say 1000 shares of reliance u cant buy any other .well this strategy is good in a trending market and would make money lots , if u are doing position trading .Avoid such in a ranging market. U need to do this only for quality stocks .NEVER buy a penny stock ,even if they are trading at their yearly lows the cheap stock get cheaper and cheaper and then get bankrupt.
U ARE INVESTING NOT ONLY TO MAKE MONEY FOR YOURSELF " There is a much bigger credible issue and committment here , u are using your money to buy into honourable ,good and growth stories and companies whose managements increase productiveity of your country and do the country proud and also the contribute to taxes and employment , Investing in dubious companies for whatever reasons means ur resources are committed to generating corruption , chicanery ,and all sorts of hanky panky associated with generation of all thats not so good with the country in general. " The good companies have to be rewarded by better prices in the stock makets and by increaseing liquidity and the bad dubious companies should be driven out and not allowed to operate by drying up liquidity.Like any professional takes a pledge be he doctor , lwayer ,engineer etc when he joing the engineering college the trader should also take a pledge to keep well away from crap companies howso ever paying the trade may be ".
e) Industry strength ~ Churn your portfolio by using the industrial strength of your stocks there are always cyclicals and indusstries who generate periods of stenght and weakness .Note trading stocks near yearly lows is also dangerous.Trade on momentum , buying stocks near yearly highs especially on bull runs can be extremely paying .
f) Investment style : ~ one can trade using so many styles , chart patterns , statistics , algotithms , astrology , ellliot waves .None is superior to the other ,The chariot in the hands of the master charioteer is superior , No taxidriver can drive a mercedes as effectively as a chauffeur , but the taxidriver is extremely versatile wih the taxi and so is the chauffeur in the merc. Find the best appraoch that suits you and which u throughly understand .Make it simple .and make sure it is really makeing u money .No aproach can make u money all the time . Cut your losse sand ride profitable trade4s for maximum effect and use stops .Always use stops in trades .
Summary of above : Buy stocks within a third of the yearly high preferabley when they make new highs ,buy when it looks like the general industry is going to move up or about to ,risisng tide lifts all boats .In bull run never buy and avoid stocks which are below their half way levels for the year especially those that are at yearly lows.
ALWAYS USE STOP LOSS .iF U FEEL U ARE GOING TO BE STOPPED OUT CLOSE OUT YOUR POSITION THERE AND THEN AND POCKET THE MONEY EVEN AT A LOSS .If u are getting repeated stopped out then dont trade something is worntg either in your approach or even just for that day , funny things happen , maybe the market is acting different or signalling a reversal , better to be in cash. All of the above is for a BEGINNING ~TRADER not an investor .

Ref :::: Trading philosophy of Thomas Bulkowsky (encyclopedia of chart patterns ~though this is not written in the book )

The Holy Grail ~ Hindsight

My previous article was a general view and for a literary audience nor was it a research paper though i have done quite a lot of lateral thinking on the subject.The word exponential should be taken in a literary sense and in tune with the general flow of the article and can be replaced by "Phenomenal"if you wish. The real reason for writing the article was that after using the brilliant capabilities of the trading software (amibroker) and rigourous testing of most of the indicators and systems designed on this platform by equally brilliant people and also designed elsewhere in mags and other trading platforms i did form a tentative conclusion that mathematics being an exact science becomes a handicap on many trading occasions.The indicator usage and backtesting facilities of amibroker also makes amibroker a sort of exact science as you come to know the capacities and limitations of the system you have designed for your trading activities.The attenuation of the system to increase your trading efficiency and profits by using mathematical formulae also has its limitations and the final squeeze in profits comes down to the risk / reward factor.Looking at maximum drawdowns and the profits by automation gives one a stark view of how much you can expect from your trading activity and also the limits of maths and formulae designed at further attempts to maximise profits results in an exponential increase in "a hundreadth of decimals" and not integers and also results in an increase in risk. I would like to apply the exact science to know about the holy grail as an interested party in this business of investing .I have come across this grail on numerous occasions as a holy grail system ,holy grail indicator,holy grail trading platform,or just simply the holy grail.The exact characteristics of the grail are missing and the main aim of most investors on any trading platform seems to be to hunt for the holy grail. A search of the Bible, which i believed would give me some sort of clue the grail being holy, by a google search from page to page on various different copies on different websites did not give me any mention of the holy grail and i think nowhere is the grail mentioned in the bible. Ayn Rand as like all the rest has just made a mention of the holy grail in her novels.Nowhere has she defined it.Her books were published in the late fifties and as of date i have never yet come across any living being who has lived up to her primary characters either in the methods of creating wealth or in her brand of capitalism.My personal opinion is that she has put far too much faith in the goodness of man and her books are hyped more on hope and dreams for mankind and a utopian world than on reality.(The closest she came to reality was in "The virtue of selfishness"). I found these statistics on a website called warrenbuffettsecrets: In 47 years, Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway has achieved returns of 259,485% versus the S&P 500 returns of 4,783%. The difference in results is an astonishing 254,747%! but if u see it means an annual return of 18 percent odd per year .
Does the holygrail connote unlimited riches beyond the dreams of avarice.Are these riches in monetary terms or living in a castle or in some luxurious villa in tahiti as was mentioned by some on this group or is it simply a new way of life or something else and what is the price to be paid for it.Do we after attaining it become a king Midas who finally turned his daughter into gold.Newtons laws say for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction .Is that reaction sleepless nights, big drawdowns,loss in reputation or is it some of what is mentioned above. I would be interested if someone finds out what is exactly meant by the holy grail.Any website, book,pamplet giving formation or any investors personal opinions.I mean we are all after the grail. Meanwhile i am back to using the exact sciences for my trading activities.

Have a nice year .

--- Natasha !!!

If u wish a second opinion :
http://snipurl.com/texa
http://snipurl.com/texi
are some good mails to set u thinking for trading , system development and existence of a grail wref to : an experienced traders viewpoints those who have ::
Been there , done that ,searched this ,achieved that and are still around with all the experience of the world .Maybe Still searching for something ???????? Maybe content , or maybe think its just not worth it anymore ????
Personally I am still searching ,,,,, for the grail of course .
Ayn rand says its in you ,but well i had to read her books some of them four five times
to really understand what she was saying and still today The Atlas Shrugged , and the
Tsunamis continue .

The Holy Grail .

Today being Saturday and a holiday and being in that frame of mind for wild mental rambling i couldnt help but think and write on something that has puzzled me for a long time.The basic idea behind trading stocks currencies or commodities or investing as many say respectfully is to increase your wealth,the stocks being the vehicles of creation of wealth .They are really what is the essence of the investment world today.They are also considered as being on the path of the search of the Holy Grail ,Indiana Jones please excuse me ??? So Is the holygrail avalable or possible ? Does Warren buffet and soros have it or did they just happen to be at the right place at the right time as it is said. The man from Omaha is still doing fabulously well and hasnt lost his touch as known by the recent P&g takeover of gillette.So he does have a very good workable system but is it the holy grail. Lots of books and info is available on how Buffett operates but noone has yet been able to replicate his level of success.My belief is that the basics are known to all but he has not allowed anyone to know a key element of his method.One or two tumblers to open the door of the vault are missing.First let us decide what a holy grail system is.I haven't been able to find a list of characteristics of any such system anywhere so i made my own.
a)The system is a profit making system.
b) The system has no negative trades.
c)The system encompasses all factors like profit booking,optimum assett allocation,optimum time frames etc etc in short usage of the system results in perpetual exponential wealth creation.
So is such a system possible?And should such a system be an automised one? So far i have found that any trading indicator however well designed has always shown a lag.It always gives a signal long after the fact.I dont mean to say catch the tops and bottoms but most wait for confirmations which if proper are lagging.Any indicator or groups of indicators working singly or in tandem for trending and ranging conditions of markets after optimising wont give more than an annual return of 40%on a sustained long term basis.So to increase this we optimise them by position size and using the various ratios devised to attenuate our trading and minimise risk but this still does not give exponential returns even though mathematics is an exact science it doesnt solve the problem of exponential returns. All these are the physical objects of study,The fundamentals ,the technicals,and the technofundamentals.The holygrail system characteristics as defined above i fear does not lie in the physical plane.Only 3 roads lead to fast riches:
a)Inheritance(rich aunt expires and leaves her favourite niece a windfall etc etc),
b)swindle(insider trading,false accounting,etc, etc) and
c)speculation.I dont know of a fourth method.The first two occur maybe once or twice in a lifetime .They may result in exponential wealth creation for the user but are no holy grail systems as they are not perpetual.That leaves speculation.The grail if available should be available there.There is an irresistible fascination in the pursuit of gold which many chase and so few capture.The markets rise and fall perpetually.Sometimes they rise or fall unusually heavily like the current recent rise in metal markets and certain world indices which are trading at all time highs because of the change in swiss banking laws which made it compulsory for certain mandatory disclosures for account holders but such hot money is exactly what it is and may soon take flight elsewhere.What if we knew in advance of such events or probability of such similiar curcumstances that would influence markets.Wouldnt that be some sort of holy grail.These cannot be done using technical charts or fundamental analysis.So what is the answer: There is only one science that can throw light on such situations and offer an explanation.It is the science of the foreknowledge.There are two that come to my mind.a)You may have a neural network that can predict future market conditions and the second is astrology.The first you have to design and it comes somewhat in tne realm of the physical plane but the second you have to interprete.It has already been designed over billions of years of evolution from the Chaldeans to Plato to today.Imagine that you have a buy signal on your trading software viz amibroker chart but the falling indices still fall and then you see on the astrological chart that Jupiter the planet of prosperity is in a strong benific aspect like conjunction with the Sun in the fifth house the house of speculation of which the sun(Leo) is lord near the cusp .You close your eyes and buy 10 contracts on the nasdaq with no hammer on daily or weekly charts and the markets go up.If you replicate something like this over and over again i would say you have found your holygrail.
These are my thoughts most of them are original.Some ideas on various subjects i have got from various books i have read over time and i too am in search of Solomons Diamond Mines. The current quote in fashion and practice in our web enabled world today is "If you present a single persons work as your own it is known as Plagiarism but if you present several peoples works as your own it is know as research ."These are the times we live in and have to adjust with and which i am applying here .

The thought is mine but the works here are from various different sources, books,media, schools and the web .

--Natasha !!!

Question ???
Can anyone including Warren Buffett replicate what he has done if he started from scratch today ??? The industry cycles and business cycles getting smaller and smaller
so is it the era of the trader viz a vis the investor ???

Stock market or Cashino

Is a stock market the same as a Casino .Its basically how you operate on the stock market .So what does a Casino do ?? It fleeces the customer slowly adn takes its percentage cut everytime the customer plays any of the games ,slots , blackjack , rouletter ,poker ,bones ,keno etc etc.So if u loose money overnite then it ceases to be a casino during some crash or heavy correction , however at normal times one is slowly loosing money perpetually since it is a minus sum game .viz brokerage , slippage etcetc Since only 5 percent of the players really make good money here ,the remaining 10~15 percent just get by with out makeing any or loosing any and the other 70~85 per cent wade in and out and loose money in the long run. All stock markets are speculative , so if u become the casino and take out your cut perpetually in small parts here and there like a casino and make the stock market as a customer then for u the stock market ceases to be a casino without doubt. I think thats the best way to play the game and like the customers the stock market is there 24~7 .So be an investor for the proper duration .keep a close eye for condition of markets and record dates of bonus ,dividend ,split ,etc and how they are going to effect the stock.last year when companies announced the same the stocks went up however this year the announce ment of bonus in many a company resulted in the stock price going down .Condition of market thats important (main factor) Waht technical or margin poisons are currently there , sentiment ,global scene,growht.
Just a thought : Whether a casino or not its up to you how u operate .
~~~ Natasha !!

Stock markets Importance of Cashing In

The biggest mistake people make in the stock market is To CAS( H ) I N O ?????????????? That happens when people loose
control of the emotions and become greedy and fail to become realistic. The art of booking profits is as important if not even more important than selecting value picks for investment .U are here for making money not see your selections make you super rich on paper ..
This phenomenon is the same with any player in the casino , the best players in any speculative activity ,in any game in the casino have one basic characteristic they know only one thing that makes them winners most of the time.
" When to quit while they are ahead " and " when to leave the table at a slight loss before disaster strikes " .many a table is rigged to suit the house odds . the table refers to the gaming tables where all casino games are played .except the slot machines (which are just computerised gambling and easy self operating machines with no human interaction ) and keno (which is just a lottery like matka or bingo ) all casino games have one thing in common .They are all played on a gaming table.
This is known as " CASHING IN "
learn to cash in on the stock markets and u will have found alladins lamp .
The art of selling is the most important in any speculative activity . Only a trader who is doing business sells ,the trader or shopkeeper sells u soap,clothes ,food ,towels , cars ,insurance etc etc and ninety nine out of 100 people in the world just buy and this becomes a habit throughout the life .Subconsiously u are trained to buy even bargain and buy so when u come to the stock market out of 10 trades whether u are investor or trader u will buy 7 to 8 times out of 10 .maybe u will buy stocks at a lower rate at bargain prices but u have a slight handicap u are not trained to sell and it is not in your subconsious to sell and thats why u remain flatfooted when the marekets tank fast .its so easy to buy ,u have been doing it throughout your life ,u have observed your parents do it when they buy lollipop ,candy when u were kids and u know all it requires is money .have u observed your parents sell anytime ??? Yes i have , i have only observed my parents sell " RADDI ~ old newspapers " which are sold in kilo adn have junk value in the house after reading since they consume space in the attic .Same thing happens to most in the stock markets . people cannot sell and many wait till their stocks are delisted also
" Learn to sell " make sure u sell and stocks at proper prices and not by the ton when markets tank .
So if most players are subconsious buyers why doesnt the market only go up ?? Have u observed a shop keeper .He has all goods and gives services to hundreds if not thousands of customers daily ,selling everything from bread to cars , gold shoes and even nails houses even batatawadas . RAre is teh time when he doesnt have what u need ,even if he doesnt have it in his shop he gets it from his next neighbours shop . U see this every day ,day in and day out but have you ever stopped and considered ??
" The shopkeeper sells u and makes a huge profit always .RAre is the case when the shopkeeper sells at a loss maybe in a clearance sell .
Same thing in the stock markets .When someone sells u a share its mostly at a profit and the shopkeeper who sells it to you there also services hundreds of customers ?? So where will u sell your stock at a profit if the seller who sells it to you sells at a profit in the first place. Stop and consider and learn the art of selling or " CASHING IN " its more important than buying (u have been doing it throughout your life from the chocolates to the lollipops and chana sing and enid blytons adn comics bought right from childhood ,ever sold anything in your childhood including your old moth eaten comics ????? )
~~ Natasha !!

Stock markets , a recurring Ponzi scheme ??

. Are our stock and commodities market a prime example of a ponzi scheme .In short initially there is an upmovein the market and many make profits and others see that ,then it moves up furthur and many more make huge profits and then there is a lot of talk and those on the sidelines get interested and start participating and the world and its people rush in for the free lunch and the markets rise exponentially and everyone is fearless since a party is on 24 ~ 7 and there is an exodus towards the market ,finally the free booters and hustlers participate in a big way mostly with margins which are obtained mostly by hustling and dubious insane methods and still money is being made and everyone is a genius and then the BEES move in and POP goes the the bubble and out flows the bubbly and champagne bottle and everyone is now seeking an escape and Gloom and Doom are everywhere and Chicken Littles are now moving around helter skelter and then the saner in the know players get into the act at the right time and make a killing due to fall in markets due not a lack of fundamentals but margin pressures . There is no free lunch anywhere .There is no free bee in this world.

In any casino when they offer u a free food coupons they expect u to stick around and contribute to their bankroll since they depend upon volumes ,when the broker gives you tea and coffee and maybe sandwiches they expect you to trade and contribute to volumes .The art of the free bee is very negotiable u have to be well informed and experienced to negotiate both the free and also disappear at the appearance of the bee .
Unless a man is motivated to perform a distasteful task the only way is to use either the carrot or the stick to get him to do it .How ever in a PONZI scheme there are two basic characteristics firs there is always a boom and good tidings and which is always followed by a burst . this is inevitable and the lure is also the same ,primarily there is a carrot and which is always follwed by the Stick .There is no either as mentioned in sentence above, here only fist the carrot and then the stick .

The marekts truly represent a prime example of a self generated and recurring PONZI Scheme .

~~~ Natasha !!!

My photograph

This is basically how i operate on the stock markets and any other speculative activity.
The theory of probability of an event happening is always there but the probability of any speculative activity occuring is mathematically always less than 50 % in the case of a choice between 2 .So u improve this value of 50 % and u are through.

~~~ Natasha