The Holy Grail .
Today being Saturday and a holiday and being in that frame of mind for wild mental rambling i couldnt help but think and write on something that has puzzled me for a long time.The basic idea behind trading stocks currencies or commodities or investing as many say respectfully is to increase your wealth,the stocks being the vehicles of creation of wealth .They are really what is the essence of the investment world today.They are also considered as being on the path of the search of the Holy Grail ,Indiana Jones please excuse me ??? So Is the holygrail avalable or possible ? Does Warren buffet and soros have it or did they just happen to be at the right place at the right time as it is said. The man from Omaha is still doing fabulously well and hasnt lost his touch as known by the recent P&g takeover of gillette.So he does have a very good workable system but is it the holy grail. Lots of books and info is available on how Buffett operates but noone has yet been able to replicate his level of success.My belief is that the basics are known to all but he has not allowed anyone to know a key element of his method.One or two tumblers to open the door of the vault are missing.First let us decide what a holy grail system is.I haven't been able to find a list of characteristics of any such system anywhere so i made my own.
a)The system is a profit making system.
b) The system has no negative trades.
c)The system encompasses all factors like profit booking,optimum assett allocation,optimum time frames etc etc in short usage of the system results in perpetual exponential wealth creation.
So is such a system possible?And should such a system be an automised one? So far i have found that any trading indicator however well designed has always shown a lag.It always gives a signal long after the fact.I dont mean to say catch the tops and bottoms but most wait for confirmations which if proper are lagging.Any indicator or groups of indicators working singly or in tandem for trending and ranging conditions of markets after optimising wont give more than an annual return of 40%on a sustained long term basis.So to increase this we optimise them by position size and using the various ratios devised to attenuate our trading and minimise risk but this still does not give exponential returns even though mathematics is an exact science it doesnt solve the problem of exponential returns. All these are the physical objects of study,The fundamentals ,the technicals,and the technofundamentals.The holygrail system characteristics as defined above i fear does not lie in the physical plane.Only 3 roads lead to fast riches:
a)Inheritance(rich aunt expires and leaves her favourite niece a windfall etc etc),
b)swindle(insider trading,false accounting,etc, etc) and
c)speculation.I dont know of a fourth method.The first two occur maybe once or twice in a lifetime .They may result in exponential wealth creation for the user but are no holy grail systems as they are not perpetual.That leaves speculation.The grail if available should be available there.There is an irresistible fascination in the pursuit of gold which many chase and so few capture.The markets rise and fall perpetually.Sometimes they rise or fall unusually heavily like the current recent rise in metal markets and certain world indices which are trading at all time highs because of the change in swiss banking laws which made it compulsory for certain mandatory disclosures for account holders but such hot money is exactly what it is and may soon take flight elsewhere.What if we knew in advance of such events or probability of such similiar curcumstances that would influence markets.Wouldnt that be some sort of holy grail.These cannot be done using technical charts or fundamental analysis.So what is the answer: There is only one science that can throw light on such situations and offer an explanation.It is the science of the foreknowledge.There are two that come to my mind.a)You may have a neural network that can predict future market conditions and the second is astrology.The first you have to design and it comes somewhat in tne realm of the physical plane but the second you have to interprete.It has already been designed over billions of years of evolution from the Chaldeans to Plato to today.Imagine that you have a buy signal on your trading software viz amibroker chart but the falling indices still fall and then you see on the astrological chart that Jupiter the planet of prosperity is in a strong benific aspect like conjunction with the Sun in the fifth house the house of speculation of which the sun(Leo) is lord near the cusp .You close your eyes and buy 10 contracts on the nasdaq with no hammer on daily or weekly charts and the markets go up.If you replicate something like this over and over again i would say you have found your holygrail.
These are my thoughts most of them are original.Some ideas on various subjects i have got from various books i have read over time and i too am in search of Solomons Diamond Mines. The current quote in fashion and practice in our web enabled world today is "If you present a single persons work as your own it is known as Plagiarism but if you present several peoples works as your own it is know as research ."These are the times we live in and have to adjust with and which i am applying here .
The thought is mine but the works here are from various different sources, books,media, schools and the web .
--Natasha !!!
Question ???
Can anyone including Warren Buffett replicate what he has done if he started from scratch today ??? The industry cycles and business cycles getting smaller and smaller
so is it the era of the trader viz a vis the investor ???
a)The system is a profit making system.
b) The system has no negative trades.
c)The system encompasses all factors like profit booking,optimum assett allocation,optimum time frames etc etc in short usage of the system results in perpetual exponential wealth creation.
So is such a system possible?And should such a system be an automised one? So far i have found that any trading indicator however well designed has always shown a lag.It always gives a signal long after the fact.I dont mean to say catch the tops and bottoms but most wait for confirmations which if proper are lagging.Any indicator or groups of indicators working singly or in tandem for trending and ranging conditions of markets after optimising wont give more than an annual return of 40%on a sustained long term basis.So to increase this we optimise them by position size and using the various ratios devised to attenuate our trading and minimise risk but this still does not give exponential returns even though mathematics is an exact science it doesnt solve the problem of exponential returns. All these are the physical objects of study,The fundamentals ,the technicals,and the technofundamentals.The holygrail system characteristics as defined above i fear does not lie in the physical plane.Only 3 roads lead to fast riches:
a)Inheritance(rich aunt expires and leaves her favourite niece a windfall etc etc),
b)swindle(insider trading,false accounting,etc, etc) and
c)speculation.I dont know of a fourth method.The first two occur maybe once or twice in a lifetime .They may result in exponential wealth creation for the user but are no holy grail systems as they are not perpetual.That leaves speculation.The grail if available should be available there.There is an irresistible fascination in the pursuit of gold which many chase and so few capture.The markets rise and fall perpetually.Sometimes they rise or fall unusually heavily like the current recent rise in metal markets and certain world indices which are trading at all time highs because of the change in swiss banking laws which made it compulsory for certain mandatory disclosures for account holders but such hot money is exactly what it is and may soon take flight elsewhere.What if we knew in advance of such events or probability of such similiar curcumstances that would influence markets.Wouldnt that be some sort of holy grail.These cannot be done using technical charts or fundamental analysis.So what is the answer: There is only one science that can throw light on such situations and offer an explanation.It is the science of the foreknowledge.There are two that come to my mind.a)You may have a neural network that can predict future market conditions and the second is astrology.The first you have to design and it comes somewhat in tne realm of the physical plane but the second you have to interprete.It has already been designed over billions of years of evolution from the Chaldeans to Plato to today.Imagine that you have a buy signal on your trading software viz amibroker chart but the falling indices still fall and then you see on the astrological chart that Jupiter the planet of prosperity is in a strong benific aspect like conjunction with the Sun in the fifth house the house of speculation of which the sun(Leo) is lord near the cusp .You close your eyes and buy 10 contracts on the nasdaq with no hammer on daily or weekly charts and the markets go up.If you replicate something like this over and over again i would say you have found your holygrail.
These are my thoughts most of them are original.Some ideas on various subjects i have got from various books i have read over time and i too am in search of Solomons Diamond Mines. The current quote in fashion and practice in our web enabled world today is "If you present a single persons work as your own it is known as Plagiarism but if you present several peoples works as your own it is know as research ."These are the times we live in and have to adjust with and which i am applying here .
The thought is mine but the works here are from various different sources, books,media, schools and the web .
--Natasha !!!
Question ???
Can anyone including Warren Buffett replicate what he has done if he started from scratch today ??? The industry cycles and business cycles getting smaller and smaller
so is it the era of the trader viz a vis the investor ???
posted by ~~~ Natasha !!! | 12:05 PM
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